Commercial Aviation News

Artificial arm of British pilot comes off during Flybe plane landing

August 14, 2014

A pilot for a British budget airline briefly lost control of a flight after his artificial arm came loose during landing, according to an air accident report. ...

... "The senior captain referred to in this report is one of Flybe's most experienced and trusted pilots," said captain Ian Baston, the firm's director of flight operations and safety. ...

... He had disconnected the autopilot and was landing the plane manually when the arm came loose, forcing him to try to regain control with his right arm.

"He did this, but with power still applied and possibly a gust affecting the aircraft, a normal touchdown was followed by a bounce, from which the aircraft landed heavily," the report said. ...​

All good, heavy landing appears to have been mostly 'armless.

The wider context developing has two continents shutting down international air traffic with a war-torn mid-east in between.


Ebola Regional Spread Puts African Airline Links at Risk

By Chris Jasper and Andres R. Martinez 2014-08-15

"Africa’s air routes are increasingly at risk as the Ebola virus prompts local carriers to avoid the worst-affected areas, demand weakens and Korean Air Lines Co. (003490) halts services thousands of miles from the outbreak’s epicenter, signaling a broader threat to the continent’s travel links.

Airlines from Gambia, Togo and Nigeria have halted flights to Ebola-hit states, while Korean Air will end operations to Kenya on Aug. 20 after a World Health Organization official in the country, which has suffered zero Ebola cases, described it as “high risk” because of airline ties to the rest of Africa.

Among carriers with the greatest West African exposure, Air France and Brussels Airlines -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA)’s main link there -- said last night that they’re screening departing customers more carefully, while persisting with flights. Korean Air’s decision to scrap its only sub-Saharan route could herald a wider review of operations in the face of a disease that has killed more than 1,000 people. ..."​

The World Health Organization yesterday said they expect the epidemic to last a minimum of 6 months. In comments to reporters it was said this was a "very optimistic" time frame. Thus the situation with Russia is crucial as the mid-east conflict(s) are not going to dampen-down, and the flying public are now sensitive to conflict zones.

Both sides of the Ukraine conflict are acutely aware of that context. In such a standoff the two 'sides' would be asymmetrically affected. If I were Russian I must read the Ukrainian requirements as a physical threat to Russian aircraft entering any part of Crimea's airspace from any direction. Ukraine has said it will never accept a defacto Russian annexation of an independent Moscow-aligned Crimea, and NATO leaders and foreign ministers have said they will not recognize Crimea as other than Ukrainian territory. An attempted blockade of Crimean airspace to Russian flights is likely. Enacting that would most probably activate Russia's counter threat to end all transit by states that it has already sanctioned.

From Wikipedia: Countries currently sanctioned by Moscow

Heads-up. A steady sustained series of increasing earthquakes at the Bárdarbunga volcanic complex, in central Iceland, began Oct 2013. Approximately two days ago an elevated and sustained volcanic 'harmonic' tremor began at a high level that's typical of pre-eruption magmatic flow. The tremor has not stopped and a pulsing harmonic tremor and many quake swarms are gradually increasing. All are close to the surface, in and around the main caldera.

August 2014 Bárdarbunga quakes

Harmonic tremor sequence since 3 AM August 16th, 2014 to present

Map of the recent quake locations and current observations​

Note the tremor and quakes are occurring along a major SW to NE oriented fissure complex which also runs right through the main caldera.​

Current Icelandic Meteorological office Aviation map and warning colour code​

After decades of quiet, seismic activity began slowly and gradually increased at Bárðarbunga from seven years ago, signalling new magma ascent. The largest known lava flow on Earth in the past 8,500 years, the Þjórsá lavas, came from this caldera. It covered 950 square kilometers of Iceland. That same eruption coincides in time with a sharp rapid beginning of the largest drop in global temperature in the past 10,000 years. As seen in this graph it took another 250 years for global temperatures to rise back to the former level. Greenland ice core temperature data plot, past 10,000 years

The volcano averages a large eruption approximately every 500 yrs over the course of the past 10,000s. Known large eruptions from Bárdarbunga have occurred in the years 870 AD and 1477 AD and a smaller eruption in 1797. Volcanologists are observing for signs of eruption in progress. The entire caldera is buried under very thick ice still. Current seismic harmonic tremor is reported by local seismologists as "high and dense".

Bárdarbunga volcano (Iceland): earthquake swarm, possible subglacial eruption
Sunday Aug 17, 2014 11:19 AM | BY: T

Earthquakes under Bárdabunga volcano (Icelandic Met Office)

Harmonic tremor (Dyngjuháls SIL station, IMO) An intense earthquake swarm started yesterday under Bárðarbunga volcano, located under the northwestern part of the Vatnajökull ice cap. It is continuing at the moment and accompanied by elevated harmonic tremor. This might indicate a subglacial eruption at the volcano, but this needs yet to be confirmed. The last eruption of Bárðarbunga volcano was in 1797 ...

​

Aviation alert level has just been raised to Orange

Aviation color code map​

Significant eruption likely, intense quake swarming slightly larger in past 24 hrs, high pulsing harmonic tremor indicative of magma movement has continued for 60 hours. Ground tilt meters indicating area is lifting and tilting away from the caldera complex.

Iceland raises alert level for volcano eruption to second-highest

500 to 250 hPc wind is from Iceland to central Europe for next five days​

Update: Rapid change in ground shape confirmed occurring

Orange alert level declared for Bárðarbunga volcano

"This is short update on Bárðarbunga volcano. Due to ever changing nature of these events this information is going to get outdated quickly.

Icelandic Met Office has moved the warning level for air traffic up to Orange level (see here). GPS measurement have confirmed magma movements inside Bárðarbunga volcano and this movement is fast. ..."
​

Update 2: Eruption Imminent

Bárdarbunga volcano (Iceland): continuing earthquake swarm & inflation

"An eruption of the subglacial volcano seems more and more likely to be imminent. Rapid inflation suggests magma intrusion at shallow depth. ..."

Seismic activity chart - 3 days intense harmonic tremor

" ... Very strong indications of ongoing magma movement, in connection with dyke intrusion, is corroborated by GPS measurements. ..."​

Rapid escalations continue

Icelandic updates from Vísir - Fréttir - in English

"... most events are now located between Bardarbunga and Kverkfjoll. ... There is full reason to expect an eruption."​

Kverkfjoll is a second major volcanic complex and the past major eruptions were 7,000 to 9,000 years ago and dormant since. Most of the recent earthquake activity (>2,800) is along a 20 km long fissure directly between these two icesheet covered calderas, particularly their eastern sides. The most recent hours of activity are concentrated close to or under Kverkfjoll. The largest quake in Iceland for the past 18 years, of mag = 4.5, occurred under Kverkfjoll a few hours ago, at 6 km depth.

GPS ground deflection and dilation displacement sensor readings are reported by professional seismologists as consistent with a medium to large magma intrusion between a depth of 7 km to 3 km and rising fast.

Kverkfjoll came to life last year on the 16th of Aug 2013 with a large steam explosion which gouged an impressive crater on its flank. Quakes have been elevating under Kverkfjoll for several years, indicating sustained magma rise.

From mid last year:

16th Aug 2013 "... Yesterday or the day before Kverkfjöll suffered a phreatic detonation, or a phreatomagmatic event. As you all know there have been an increase in deep earthquakes in the area, a sign of increased magmatic activity at depth. There is currently no harmonic tremor present at Kverkfjöll, but as a result a minor Jökulhlaup has started from the volcano, probably due to increased hydrothermal activity caused by influx of new magma. ..."

21st Aug 2013 "... It is slightly out of the ordinary, but not unheard of, that 3 different volcanic systems are suffering from Jökulhlaups at the same time. There though seems to be different driving forces behind them, at least as far as we know at this time. ..." ​

Jökulhlaup = Sudden flood surge of escaping icesheet melt water.

Yet another major fissure complex associated quake concentration is occurring on a parallel fissure complex around 30 km to the WSW of the two main volcano centers. In total, an area of about 100 km x 40 km is described as an interconnected volcanic rift network riddled with fissures. It is the largest volcanic complex in Iceland. The current harmonic tremors and quake swarms are occurring along several sites within it, indicating significant magma intrusion movements and ground deformations.

Possibility of a complex eruption sequence exists, professionally discussed here

A new webcam - has been placed on a third volcano (the one which erupted in 2011) which is sited 30 kilometers ESE of Bardarbunga and is facing the two main areas of intense activity, between 30 km the 70 km distant.​

You're welcome JFN, spiffy new avatar there. I'm on the ground for a bit so have time to mess about with this. A summary came out a few hours back and the graphics put things into a clearer picture. It may be a fissure eruption only, and not so bad as one of the big holes near to it opening (depicted). That said the fissure is 12 nm long.

Summary of activity in Bárðarbunga

Because a significant lava-dominated fissure eruption appears likely, I've examined what effect it could have on aviation. It turns out a major fissure eruption can be more insidious than you'd think, for aviation as well. There is a well-documented historic prior instance that originated from the same extended fissure complex, from June 1783 thru February 1784. Nine months of intense multiple periodic fissure eruptions resulted. Lava fountains were estimated to have reached 4,600 ft above the ground elevation of 2,864 ft. i.e. lava got up to 7,500 ft above sea level.

"... The gases were carried by the convective eruption column to altitudes of about 15 km (10 mi). In Great Britain, the summer of 1783 was known as the "sand-summer" because of the ash fallout. ... The outpouring of gases, including an estimated 8 million tons of hydrogen fluoride and an estimated 120 million tons of sulfur dioxide, gave rise to what has since become known as the "Laki haze" across Europe. ..."​

Laki, 2,684 ft, South Iceland, at SW edge of the Vatnajökull glacier [same glacier which covers Bardarbunga]

"Its eruption in 1783 was one of the more devastating on record, leading to the deaths of a quarter of Iceland's inhabitants (mainly due to a famine that resulted from the eruption's effects). Haze from the eruption spread over parts of Europe, where some experts believe it affected the inhabitants' health. Surrounding the crater are the Lakagígar series of c.100 volcanic rifts. Laki, a volcanic chain in southern Iceland, near the south western edge of the Vatnajökull glacier. Maximum elevation, 818 m. The Laki chain consists of 115 craters extending 25 km along a tectonic fissure. There was a major eruption in 1783–84, during which some 12.2 cu km of lava were expelled. A lava field of 565 sq km was formed. Approximately 0.3 cu km of volcanic ash was spread over 6,000 sq km. The eruption caused the death of 10,521 people, as well as 10,000 cattle, 27,000 horses, and about 180,000 sheep."​

Laki, Iceland - 1783

The eruption that changed Iceland forever

Global impacts of the 1783-84 Laki eruption in Iceland​

Today's fissure where earthquakes are concentrated, is along the same fissure complex's extension to the NE side of Bardarbunga caldera, but ground level rises to around 4,200 ft, and is covered with another 1,900 ft of Vatnajökull icesheet on top.

It is more complicated too as Laki's duel 25 km long fissure complex wasn't covered with such ice, but all 20 kilometers of the current fissure's activity is. Visualize 4,500 ft high lava fountains raining on a regional icesheet and resulting steam explosions and convective uplift into the jetstream.

Moreover, the Laki eruption was closely followed by large volcanos nearby erupting as well into 1785. So around two years of very large eruptions occurred.


Conclusion: The activity not within a caldera or volcano does not equate to reduced hazards. It comes down to the volume of magma extruded (how deep it goes below the fissure).

How much magma wants to rise below the current fissures?​

Uncertainty, JetN. IcelandAir is putting on a brave optimistic face and are rightly saying that no one knows where this will go or what the impact will be and they are soldiering on until they know different. Some are making hay out of a few percent share dip, though that seems a bit silly to me personally. They pointed out that earlier eruptions actually were followed by a sustained surge in tourism to Iceland and that they are doing good business on the back of it.

But the hide-under-the-covers stuff can not be ignored either. Here's the latest view from the people in the hot seat who really know their stuff, and have the best data:

Magma surge towards the surface would be very powerful - 20th August 2014

Kristín Vogfjörð, research director at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says that the current seismic activity at Bárðarbunga is many times more powerful than any on record for the site. "It's very powerful," she says. For comparison she notes that thousands of quakes have been measured at Bárðarbunga in the past week, but in the Gjálpar eruption in 1996 they were only a few hundred. ... "While this is going on, it may never reach the surface. But we still need to keep an eye on it because the volume of magma is incredible," she adds. ..."There is no indication that it's moving further up than that. But if it were to happen, it would happen very quickly," Kristín states.​

Bardarbunga is one of two of the most powerful calderas of its stratovolcano type, on earth. The other one is about 20 km to the ESE, connected to it.

I believe she's crossed her fingers and toes this does not blow, or it will quickly reach a scale we probably haven't seen in living memory. I expect commercial operations will digest the reality and head upwind.

Update on Beelzebub's volcano

Icelandair spokesman says Bárðarbunga does not affect flights 21.8.2014 | 11:44

Gunnar Dofri Ólafsson mbl.is

"This [the seismic activity in Bárðarbunga] does not affect our operations," said Icelandair spokesman Guðjón Arngrímsson to mbl.is. He further stated that the situation had not had a negative affect on flight bookings at the airline. ... "A lot of people are worried, people have contacted us, asking if there is any cause for concern. Our answer is always the same: There are currently no changes to our flight schedule," said Guðjón.

He said that the airline had not made a specific plan of action in case of an eruption, in light of the earthquakes. Such plans, he said, already exist. "We have plans of action in case of any changes of our flight schedules. If Bárðarbunga erupts, we will have to put these plans in action, but there is no way to predict how a possible eruption would affect us," said Guðjón. "We don't know what sort of a situation would arise."

Guðjón said that the choice of words in the media could have a considerable effect. "Words like "evacuation" sound like hundreds or even thousands of people are being evacuated. The reality is that only a very small number of people was located North of Bárðarbunga." These report, he said, are often the reason people contacted the airline.​

--

Regarding the magma, the quakes are a bit larger and more numerous in the last 24 hrs. There's no hint of the magma gush easing but the land is deforming more as well. The deformation trace is now pulse-oscillating with the quake swarms and magma surges that follow.

Some of the focus moved back to the caldera at Bardarbunga due to four of the largest earthquakes of the past 24 hours occurring within it. This is the main magma inflow duct and the area is getting stressed enough for seasoned volcanism experts to express dark thoughts on what happens if this continues to escalate.

Icelandic seismologists and vulcanologists have not seen anything resembling it before and apparently nor has anyone else. Numerous advanced sensor networks have been deployed, so much will be learned from the situation, either way it goes. The country seems to be as ready as it can be.

Good Luck Iceland!

Large very rapid change at Bardarbunga volcano and adjacent fissure complex.

Several seismologists are saying in the last hour that it's likely that an eruption has just commenced under the ice. The Icelandic Met Office is currently evaluating any need to raise the aviation alert level from orange to red. A Coastguard recon flight is over the area and no sign of eruption cloud is yet seen.

Translated:

Increased activity and TF SIF alert

First published: 23/08/2014 12:00, Last updated: 08/23/2014 12:02

TF SIF, machine Coast Guard has been put on alert due to increased activity of Bárðarbunga

Seismicity in Bárðarbunga has increased considerably for lunch and the dyke under Dyngjujökli has lengthened rapidly northward past hour. TF SIF, Coast Guard aircraft have been responsive position. No significant changes in measures of water nearby.

This according to a new status report submitted to the IMO was now just before midday. Turmoil Tests show that the IMO's unease with Bárðarbunga has increased considerably in the morning, and nýuppfærðar pictures of the location of the quake show that dyke east of Bárðarbunga has gained a few miles and take a direction more to the north than before. Samtúlkun measurements suggests that there is still magma flows along the corridor.

The IMO is currently evaluating whether the alert level for flights will be increased.

From midnight have been several large earthquakes 3-4 size in Bárðarbunga cartons. Now just before noon seismicity has increased considerably.​

12:50 PM local Iceland time as I write this so the information is fresh. The following link provides an insight to the sudden rise in intensity of harmonic magmatic activity during the past few hours, it's gone sharply above the normal scale range.

Possible eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano